How to read it

The red area is the share of long-term-holder supply currently held at a loss. Long-term holders (LTH) are coins that haven't moved in roughly 155+ days - the cohort with the strongest conviction and the lowest cost basis.

When even that supply goes underwater, the market has usually run out of sellers. Historically, spikes in the red area line up with cycle bottoms: the last strong hands capitulate, and there is nobody left to sell. The white line is BTC price on a log axis so you can read the relationship directly against the full history.

Today 34.7% of LTH supply is in loss - the 84th percentile of all days since genesis. Data: Bitcoin Research Kit (bitview.space), node-computed daily since the genesis block.