Years to Target by DCA Amount
How to read it
Each colored line is a different start year, from 2015 (cool blues - easiest path, BTC was cheap) to 2034 (warm reds - pure projection). For any DCA on the X axis, trace a vertical line up to find the years-to-target for each start year.
Lines for past start years use actual historical prices for the simulation period that has already happened, then switch to the OLS power-law projection for any remaining weeks beyond today. Future start years are pure projection.
Toggle between targets of 0.1, 1, and 10 BTC at the top of the chart. Smaller targets are reachable for more (DCA, year) combinations, so the curves stay flatter; the 10 BTC target requires either an early start, a very high DCA, or both.
The model behind it
Forward numbers come from an OLS power-law fit of log10(price) against log10(days since 2009), across all 5,879 days of daily history. The assumed price on day d is 10^(-16.381 + 5.651 · log10(d)), and each weekly buy compounds into the running BTC total.
Start years in the past are replayed against the actual daily close, so those curves are history rather than projection. Only the future portion uses the fit above.
A curve fitted to the past is not a prediction of the future. Treat these as one scenario, not a forecast. 100,000,000 sats per BTC. Not financial advice.